When you invest, you are looking for return. You want your money to grow over time, preferably at a rate that will allow you to achieve your financial goals.
An investment’s rate of return can be a deceptive thing, however. The amount of money that an investment has made in the past isn’t a guarantee of future returns. Moreover, these returns by themselves don’t tell you a whole lot about what you are investing in.
Learning how to analyze an investment’s returns — and understanding its limitations — will help you on the path to financial freedom. Just remember these key facts about an investment’s return when examining it.
Short time frames don’t tell you much
“Hey, this mutual fund went up 29 percent last year! Woo hoo!” That’s great, but what did it do the year before? And the year before that? How has it performed over the last decade? Looking at the rate of return for a single year is not particularly useful, as any investment can have a hot 12 months. To get a sense of how an investment may perform in the future, it helps to have a long record of performance to examine. Fortunately, most brokerages and financial websites have comprehensive information on historical returns, so you’re not simply looking at the performance of the last year.
It offers no information on the type of investment
It’s great if an investment has a solid rate of return, but that should not be the only consideration when looking to buy shares. If you are buying a stock, you need to ask yourself key questions aside from just looking at performance. What industry does the company operate in? How big is the company? Does it operate internationally? If you’re talking about a mutual fund, what is the investment mix? Answering these questions will help you understand whether you already own similar investments, and whether it makes sense to add them to your portfolio.
It’s almost useless without context
Let’s say you come across a mutual fund that earned a 9 percent return last year. You might think that is pretty good, right? Well, it doesn’t look so good when you consider the S&P 500 returned 11.96 percent. Information on returns is only meaningful when it is paired with information about the broader stock market, comparable investments, and specific indexes. A small cap ETF, for example, should be examined alongside the Russell 2000 index. A mutual fund focused on technology should be compared to prominent technology indexes. Fortunately, most brokerage firms and financial websites do provide this, so it’s important to analyze market returns using that context.
It does not always factor in all costs
If you purchase a mutual fund or ETF, a certain portion of your investment is taken in expenses and fees. While mutual fund returns are usually reported net of expenses, not every cost is included in this calculation. Many funds have sales charges and commissions (also known as loads) that you pay when buying and selling. Your brokerage firm may also charge a commission to execute the trade. This can reduce your overall return. The good news is that there are many good no-load mutual funds out there, and many can be traded without a commission, depending on the broker.
One more caveat regarding costs. Capital gains taxes will also reduce your balance when you sell. Be sure to factor in these costs when examining an investment’s rate of return.
It does not offer detail on volatility
Let’s say you have a stock that rose in value from $50 to $90 in five years. The annualized return on that stock is 16 percent. But that does not tell you whether the stock’s performance has been consistent or wildly up and down.
For example, during that five-year period, that stock may have risen 20 percent, then dropped 25 percent, then risen 44 percent, dropped 10 percent, and finally rose 53 percent. That’s pretty volatile, and may be outside the comfort zone of many investors even though the overall return is good. To get a better picture of the investment’s performance, you need to look at the returns from each individual year, but even that offers no insight into price swings within any given year.
It can’t answer the question “Why?”
An investment’s rate of return may be the crucial piece of information you need to know before investing, but there’s a lot that it doesn’t tell you. Perhaps most importantly, it does not offer any insight into why an investment’s price moved up or doing during a certain period.
Investment values go up and down for a variety of reasons, not all of them related to company performance. Perhaps a retailer saw its shares fall sharply during one quarter due to a series of natural disasters. Perhaps another company saw shares rise dramatically because of hype over its Super Bowl commercial. Returns on investment are crucial to know, but if you are an investor, it’s important to do your own homework to understand why a price went up or down. Doing so will help you better understand how an investment may perform in the future.
It gives you no information on fundamentals
An investment’s historical rate of return can give you insight into how it might perform in the future. But the company’s actual financial performance may be even more important. It’s not enough to just examine an investment’s return. You should also look at company balance sheets, analyze earnings reports, and look at things like cash flow, debt, and price-to-earnings ratio. This will help you understand whether an investment’s price is justified. Examples abound of companies that saw share prices skyrocket based on speculation although earnings weren’t there to support it.
It tells you nothing about taxes
Let’s say you invested $1,000 in a company stock and it earned an annual return of 9 percent a year over five years. That means you’ll end up with $1,450 when you sell, right? Well, not exactly. Remember that unless you are investing in a tax-advantaged account such as a Roth IRA, the government takes its share when you sell. Assuming that you’ll be taxed at the long-term capital gains rate of 15 percent, suddenly, that 9 percent annual return became something closer to 7 percent. Keep this in mind when trying to calculate how much money you’ll actually walk away with.